Women’s Olympic Soccer: 2012 Draw, List of Hypothetical Scenarios

Note: This post is part of my main post on predicting the 2012 Women’s Olympic Soccer Tournament draw, where I review the 2008 tournament’s draw and use that as a model for predicting the seeding for this year’s draw.

In the first section, below, I list all the possible scenarios, based on the predicted seeding. After that section, there is a separate list of all the potential groupings, organized by group, which is useful for comparing and reviewing all the potential group scenarios for one of the seeded teams.

ALL POSSIBLE SCENARIOS BASED ON PREDICTED PROCEDURE

Based on the draw procedure that I am predicting, here are the 32 possible group scenarios. (I think that I have all possible scenarios listed, but the math to prove this is a bit hard to explain without going into too much detail, and would require more time and research.)

SCENARIO #01
Group E: Great Britain, Brazil, New Zealand, Cameroon
Group F: Japan, France, Canada, South Africa
Group G: United States, Sweden, North Korea, Colombia

SCENARIO #02
Group E: Great Britain, Canada, New Zealand, Cameroon
Group F: Japan, France, Brazil, South Africa
Group G: United States, Sweden, North Korea, Colombia

SCENARIO #03
Group E: Great Britain, Brazil, New Zealand, Cameroon
Group F: Japan, Sweden, Canada, South Africa
Group G: United States, France, North Korea, Colombia

SCENARIO #04
Group E: Great Britain, Canada, New Zealand, Cameroon
Group F: Japan, Sweden, Brazil, South Africa
Group G: United States, France, North Korea, Colombia

SCENARIO #05
Group E: Great Britain, Brazil, North Korea, Cameroon
Group F: Japan, France, Canada, South Africa
Group G: United States, Sweden, New Zealand, Colombia

SCENARIO #06
Group E: Great Britain, Canada, North Korea, Cameroon
Group F: Japan, France, Brazil, South Africa
Group G: United States, Sweden, New Zealand, Colombia

SCENARIO #07
Group E: Great Britain, Brazil, North Korea, Cameroon
Group F: Japan, Sweden, Canada, South Africa
Group G: United States, France, New Zealand, Colombia

SCENARIO #08
Group E: Great Britain, Canada, North Korea, Cameroon
Group F: Japan, Sweden, Brazil, South Africa
Group G: United States, France, New Zealand, Colombia

SCENARIO #09
Group E: Great Britain, Brazil, New Zealand, South Africa
Group F: Japan, France, Canada, Colombia
Group G: United States, Sweden, North Korea, Cameroon

SCENARIO #10
Group E: Great Britain, Brazil, New Zealand, South Africa
Group F: Japan, Sweden, Canada, Colombia
Group G: United States, France, North Korea, Cameroon

SCENARIO #11
Group E: Great Britain, Brazil, North Korea, South Africa
Group F: Japan, France, Canada, Colombia
Group G: United States, Sweden, New Zealand, Cameroon

SCENARIO #12
Group E: Great Britain, Brazil, North Korea, South Africa
Group F: Japan, Sweden, Canada, Colombia
Group G: United States, France, New Zealand, Cameroon

SCENARIO #13
Group E: Great Britain, Canada, New Zealand, Colombia
Group F: Japan, France, Brazil, Cameroon
Group G: United States, Sweden, North Korea, South Africa

SCENARIO #14
Group E: Great Britain, Canada, New Zealand, Colombia
Group F: Japan, Sweden, Brazil, Cameroon
Group G: United States, France, North Korea, South Africa

SCENARIO #15
Group E: Great Britain, Canada, North Korea, Colombia
Group F: Japan, France, Brazil, Cameroon
Group G: United States, Sweden, New Zealand, South Africa

SCENARIO #16
Group E: Great Britain, Canada, North Korea, Colombia
Group F: Japan, Sweden, Brazil, Cameroon
Group G: United States, France, New Zealand, South Africa

SCENARIO #17
Group E: Great Britain, Brazil, New Zealand, Cameroon
Group F: Japan, France, Canada, Colombia
Group G: United States, Sweden, North Korea, South Africa

SCENARIO #18
Group E: Great Britain, Brazil, New Zealand, Cameroon
Group F: Japan, Sweden, Canada, Colombia
Group G: United States, France, North Korea, South Africa

SCENARIO #19
Group E: Great Britain, Brazil, North Korea, Cameroon
Group F: Japan, France, Canada, Colombia
Group G: United States, Sweden, New Zealand, South Africa

SCENARIO #20
Group E: Great Britain, Brazil, North Korea, Cameroon
Group F: Japan, Sweden, Canada, Colombia
Group G: United States, France, New Zealand, South Africa

SCENARIO #21
Group E: Great Britain, Brazil, New Zealand, South Africa
Group F: Japan, France, Canada, Cameroon
Group G: United States, Sweden, North Korea, Colombia

SCENARIO #22
Group E: Great Britain, Canada, New Zealand, South Africa
Group F: Japan, France, Brazil, Cameroon
Group G: United States, Sweden, North Korea, Colombia

SCENARIO #23
Group E: Great Britain, Brazil, New Zealand, South Africa
Group F: Japan, Sweden, Canada, Cameroon
Group G: United States, France, North Korea, Colombia

SCENARIO #24
Group E: Great Britain, Canada, New Zealand, South Africa
Group F: Japan, Sweden, Brazil, Cameroon
Group G: United States, France, North Korea, Colombia

SCENARIO #25
Group E: Great Britain, Brazil, North Korea, South Africa
Group F: Japan, France, Canada, Cameroon
Group G: United States, Sweden, New Zealand, Colombia

SCENARIO #26
Group E: Great Britain, Canada, North Korea, South Africa
Group F: Japan, France, Brazil, Cameroon
Group G: United States, Sweden, New Zealand, Colombia

SCENARIO #27
Group E: Great Britain, Brazil, North Korea, South Africa
Group F: Japan, Sweden, Canada, Cameroon
Group G: United States, France, New Zealand, Colombia

SCENARIO #28
Group E: Great Britain, Canada, North Korea, South Africa
Group F: Japan, Sweden, Brazil, Cameroon
Group G: United States, France, New Zealand, Colombia

SCENARIO #29
Group E: Great Britain, Canada, New Zealand, Colombia
Group F: Japan, France, Brazil, South Africa
Group G: United States, Sweden, North Korea, Cameroon

SCENARIO #30
Group E: Great Britain, Canada, New Zealand, Colombia
Group F: Japan, Sweden, Brazil, South Africa
Group G: United States, France, North Korea, Cameroon

SCENARIO #31
Group E: Great Britain, Canada, North Korea, Colombia
Group F: Japan, France, Brazil, South Africa
Group G: United States, Sweden, New Zealand, Cameroon

SCENARIO #32
Group E: Great Britain, Canada, North Korea, Colombia
Group F: Japan, Sweden, Brazil, South Africa
Group G: United States, France, New Zealand, Cameroon

***

POTENTIAL GROUPINGS, BY GROUP

The following are all the unique possible groupings, based on my predicted seeding of the teams.

Due to the requirement that Brazil and Colombia cannot be in the same group, this results in an unequal set of scenarios for the three groups: Great Britain’s and Japan’s groups each only have 10 unique scenarios, while the USA’s group has 12 unique scenarios. Each group scenario has been given an alphanumeric label to simply any discussions that may develop on this site or elsewhere.

In parentheses, following each list is the number of times (i.e., the frequency) each individual group scenario occurs in the overall list of scenarios.

Group E
#E01:
Great Britain, Brazil, New Zealand, Cameroon (4 scenarios)
#E02: Great Britain, Brazil, New Zealand, South Africa (4 scenarios)
#E03: Great Britain, Brazil, North Korea, Cameroon (4 scenarios)
#E04: Great Britain, Brazil, North Korea, South Africa (4 scenarios)
#E05: Great Britain, Canada, New Zealand, Cameroon (2 scenarios)
#E06: Great Britain, Canada, New Zealand, Colombia (4 scenarios)
#E07: Great Britain, Canada, New Zealand, South Africa (2 scenarios)
#E08: Great Britain, Canada, North Korea, Cameroon (2 scenarios)
#E09: Great Britain, Canada, North Korea, Colombia (4 scenarios)
#E10: Great Britain, Canada, North Korea, South Africa (2 scenarios)

Group F
#F01:
Japan, France, Brazil, Cameroon (4 scenarios)
#F02: Japan, France, Brazil, South Africa (4 scenarios)
#F03: Japan, France, Canada, Cameroon (2 scenarios)
#F04: Japan, France, Canada, Colombia (4 scenarios)
#F05: Japan, France, Canada, South Africa (2 scenarios)
#F06: Japan, Sweden, Brazil, Cameroon (4 scenarios)
#F07: Japan, Sweden, Brazil, South Africa (4 scenarios)
#F08: Japan, Sweden, Canada, Cameroon (2 scenarios)
#F09: Japan, Sweden, Canada, Colombia (4 scenarios)
#F10: Japan, Sweden, Canada, South Africa (2 scenarios)

Group G
#G01:
United States, France, New Zealand, Cameroon (2 scenarios)
#G02: United States, France, New Zealand, Colombia (4 scenarios)
#G03: United States, France, New Zealand, South Africa (2 scenarios)
#G04: United States, France, North Korea, Cameroon (2 scenarios)
#G05: United States, France, North Korea, Colombia (4 scenarios)
#G06: United States, France, North Korea, South Africa (2 scenarios)
#G07: United States, Sweden, New Zealand, Cameroon (2 scenarios)
#G08: United States, Sweden, New Zealand, Colombia (4 scenarios)
#G09: United States, Sweden, New Zealand, South Africa (2 scenarios)
#G10: United States, Sweden, North Korea, Cameroon (2 scenarios)
#G11: United States, Sweden, North Korea, Colombia (4 scenarios)
#G12: United States, Sweden, North Korea, South Africa (2 scenarios)

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